Of course Emirates is not alone in the region and have now and in the future tremendous competition from other Gulf carriers. If the region and Dubai in particular are trying to establish themselves as tourist destinations they have a lot to do.

The biggest problem they will face is tremendous overcapacity and will find it very difficult to fill seats. In attempting to Establish the gulf region as an aviation hub, Emirates and other carriers will have invested millions if not billions in infrastructure to support their efforts and their attempts may be for nothing if aviation takes the inevitable step and goes to direct travel routes and eliminates the hub system.

When Airbus announced the A380 oil was about $30.00 a barrel U.S. and seat costs were manageable, and airlines could afford to fly with load factors under 75% but that certainly is not the case now and Emirates will have a very difficult time making a profit unless they cram the A380’s up to the load limit.

I would think that as soon as Boeing gets their first 787 in the air and into revenue service you’ll see an explosion of orders from all across the aviation landscape, airlines have to modernize and every percentage of operational savings gained through weight reduction and the resulting fuel saving will save them millions of dollars.

Already many of the major carriers have begun flying city pair routes getting passengers directly to their destinations with fuller loads and less cost.

The next five years is going to be very tough on airlines and many will fail, the strong will survive and consolidate and many routes will be allowed to die on the vine.